Predictions For Hollywood Casino 400
On Sunday, October 20th, NASCAR will be live from the Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas, for the Hollywood Casino 400. This is the second trip to Kansas in 2019, the 6th race of the playoffs, and the 32nd overall race of the season.
Following the conclusion of the Hollywood Casino 400, four drivers will be eliminated from the playoffs, and the remaining eight will move on to Round 3.
Currently, Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson have automatically moved on to the next round of the playoffs due to winning the last two races. At least four additional drivers like Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are practically guaranteed to advance to the next round based on their standings.
NASCAR betting sites have Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. listed as the co-favorites to win this race. Following close behind them are Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Let’s take a closer look at these Hollywood Casino 400 betting odds, NASCAR prop bets, and take the checkered flag with our picks.
- The second race of the Round of 12 is this weekend at Kansas Speedway. Before the Hollywood Casino 400 starts, here are four predictions for the race on Sunday.
- Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions. The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series waves the green flag on the Hollywood Casino 400, the final race of the second stage of the Chase.Here’s the drivers we like to contend for the victory.
Race Profile
The Kansas Speedway was completed in 2001 and began hosting NASCAR races that same year. The track itself is a basic tri-oval with a lap length of 1.5 miles. This track also has a road course that was used by the IndyCar Series. After lights were installed in 2011, NASCAR awarded a second annual race to Kansas Speedway.
Odds for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway are now available at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, and there is one driver I’m betting immediately. Alex Bowman to Win (25-1) When the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) visited Kansas back in May, Kevin Harvick had the fastest racecar, but Bowman was clearly the second.
The spring race is the Digital Ally 400, and the fall race is the Hollywood Casino 400, which breaks down as follows:
- Total Miles: 400.5 miles
- Total Laps: 267 laps
- Stage 1: First 80 laps
- Stage 2: Second 80 laps
- Final Stage: Remaining 107 laps
The Hollywood Casino 400 is set to begin at 2:30 PM ET and will air live on NBC.
'Kansas has been the one that's caused the most trouble for the playoff drivers.'
Expect the unexpected as the #NASCARPlayoffs roll into @kansasspeedway. pic.twitter.com/xal2BvwX7E
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 18, 2019
What to Watch for at Kansas
With all of the racing excitement heading into the Hollywood Casino 400, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye:
- Which drivers will be eliminated from the playoffs?
- Can Joey Logano or Kyle Busch break their winless streaks?
- Will Hendrick Motorsports see their team of drivers eliminated?
- Can a non-playoff driver win this big race?
- Will Brad Keselowski sweep Kansas this year?
Current Playoff Standings
With only one race left in Round 2, the desperation has picked up as drivers are trying to stave off elimination. Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson have moved on to Round 3 after winning the two races in this round. The following is a current breakdown of the playoff standings based on points:
- Denny Hamlin (3,114 points)
- Martin Truex Jr. (3,106 points)
- Kyle Busch (3,099 points)
- Kevin Harvick (3,094 points)
- Brad Keselowski (3,078 points)
- Joey Logano (3,076 points)
- Kyle Larson (3,069 points) Ryan Blaney (3,056 points)
Below the Cutoff Line to Advance to Round 3
- Alex Bowman (3,058 points)
- Chase Elliott (3,054 points)
- Clint Bowyer (3,052 points)
- William Byron (3,049 points)
Eliminated from the Playoffs
- Aric Almirola
- Ryan Newman
- Kurt Busch
- Erik Jones
Previous Hollywood Casino 400 Winners
Jeff Gordon won the first Kansas race back in 2001. He would follow that up by winning the next year, as well. Currently, there are six drivers all tied with two wins apiece, which is the most by any driver for this race. Including the spring race, Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are all tied for the most wins at Kansas with three apiece.
Chase Elliott is the defending champ for this race after winning in 2018. The following is a list of the previous winners:
- Jeff Gordon in 2001, 2002
- Ryan Newman in 2003
- Joe Nemechek in 2004
- Mark Martin in 2005
- Tony Stewart in 2006, 2009
- Greg Biffle in 2007, 2010
- Jimmie Johnson in 2008, 2011
- Matt Kenseth in 2012
- Kevin Harvick in 2013, 2016
- Joey Logano in 2014, 2015
- Martin Truex Jr. in 2017
- Chase Elliott in 2018
Six previous Hollywood Casino 400 winners will be competing in this race on Sunday: Newman, Johnson, Harvick, Logano, Truex Jr., and Elliott.
He won in these colors at @kansasspeedway in 2018.
Can @chaseelliott repeat the magic in the same look when he runs it at @MartinsvilleSwy? pic.twitter.com/4Q2gIvhPOm
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 17, 2019
NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Odds
The following NASCAR betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
- Kevin Harvick (+450)
- Martin Truex Jr (+450)
- Chase Elliott (+500)
- Kyle Busch (+500)
- Brad Keselowski (+1000)
- Joey Logano (+1000)
- Kyle Larson (+1000)
- Denny Hamlin (+1600)
- Alex Bowman (+2000)
- Erik Jones (+2500)
- Ryan Blaney (+2500)
- Clint Bowyer (+3300)
- Jimmie Johnson (+3300)
- Kurt Busch (+3300)
- William Byron (+3300)
- Aric Almirola (+8000)
- Daniel Suarez (+8000)
Nascar Hollywood Casino 400 Results
Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Favorites
According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas:
| Driver | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | Avg Start | Avg Finish | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 3 | 8 | 14 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 2 | 8 | 9 | 11.5 | 14.2 | 1 |
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 0 |
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 6 | 10 | 12.4 | 16.9 | 4 |
| Brad Keselowski | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 1 |
Kevin Harvick (+450)
Harvick rolls into Kansas as the co-odds on favorite to win the race. Even if he doesn’t, Harvick still has a great chance of moving on in the playoffs. In 27 starts at Kansas, Harvick has three wins, eight Top 5s, 14 Top 10s, the best average finish among qualified active drivers at 9.8, and just 1 DNF.
Furthermore, Harvick holds the records for poles (5), laps led (855), and tied for most all-time wins with three. Harvick has won two of the last six Kansas races and has four Top 5s in the previous seven races at this track.
Last weekend, Harvick was caught up in some accidents but was still able to come home 17th. Before that race, he had 10 Top 10s in the last 11 races, including three wins and seven Top 5s.
Harvick will be a contender this weekend. I expect him to be in the Top 5 when it’s all said and done. I also believe the will be one of the 2 or 3 drivers to compete for the checkered flag in the final laps of the Hollywood Casino 400.
Martin Truex Jr (+450)
If there’s one driver who can hang with Harvick on Sunday, it’s Martin Truex. The #19 car sits second in the standings based on points. He finished 26th last weekend due to a wreck, but only fell one spot down in the standings, just eight points behind his teammate Denny Hamlin.
Before last weekend’s Talladega race, Truex had four straight Top 7 results in the playoffs, including two wins and a runner up. Now, Truex comes into this weekend’s race with high expectations of winning his 3rd playoff race this postseason.
In his last 10 appearances at Kansas, Truex has finished 19th or better in all of them. During that span, he also has five Top 5s, six Top 10s and two wins. Truex is the only driver to have swept both Kansas races in the same season. He did so in 2017, the year he won the championship.
I believe Truex will be a player on Sunday. Truex loves the 1.5 mile tracks, and this race comes at the perfect time for Truex to win and move on to Round 3.
Chase Elliott (+500)
Elliott might be ranked this high with oddsmakers, but he’s currently in 10th place overall in the standings and 22 points below the cutoff line. If Elliott doesn’t perform well on Sunday, then he will be eliminated from the playoffs.
This is a position that Elliott has been in before. Last year at this exact race, Elliott was in danger of being eliminated. However, with hard work and a little bit of luck on the final laps, Elliott ended up winning the Hollywood Casino 400 and moving on to the next round of the playoffs.
I believe Elliott has a chance to repeat that scenario. Over his last four races at Kansas, Elliott has one win, three Top 5s and four Top 12s. He also has an average finish of 5.25 in those races and has led laps in the last two Kansas events.
Other than a blown engine at Dover and car issues at Darlington, Elliott has seven Top 10s in the last nine races and two wins. Watch out for the #9 car on Sunday.
Kyle Busch (+500)
Kyle Busch continues to be stuck in a winless streak that dates back four months now. And, his postseason run this year hasn’t been spectacular by any means. He has three finishes at 19th or worse and just two Top 6 results in the five postseason races so far.
To say this is a slump is an understatement. Furthermore, Busch needs a strong result on Sunday to guarantee a spot in the final eight of the playoffs. Right now, he has a decent cushion and should be able to advance as long as he finishes in the Top 20, among other variables.
Fortunately for Kyle, Kansas is a track where he’s had success at in recent years. In his last nine races at this track, Busch has one win, six Top 5s, and eight Top 10s.
I’m not sure if Busch will end his winless streak, but I do believe he’s at least a Top 10 car. And, that’s enough for Kyle to move on to the next round. He currently sits 3rd in the points standings with a 41 point cushion over the cutoff line.
Perseverance & hard work led @KyleBusch to the 2015 #NASCAR Cup Series Championship!#NASCARPlayoffspic.twitter.com/LyAGqdd6FK
— Toyota Racing (@ToyotaRacing) October 16, 2019
Brad Keselowski (+1000)
Keselowski will need a strong result at Kansas on Sunday to fend off the four drivers below the cutoff line and his teammate Joey Logano who is one spot below him, just 2 points behind. Good news for fans of the #2 car, Kansas is a favorable track for Keselowski.
For starters, Keselowski won at Kansas in the spring. It continued a streak of five straight Top 14 finishes at this track. He was 6th in this race last year. It was also his second career win at Kansas Speedway. Brad has an average finish of 7.2 average finish in the previous five Kansas races.
Hollywood Casino 400 Lineup
Like many other drivers, Keselowski was caught up in a car crash last weekend at Talladega, which led to his finish of 25th. Keselowski led 22 laps in that race and had a decent car. Unfortunately, Talladega always ruins the hopes and dreams of drivers.
With that said, Keselowski still has a 9.6 average finish in the playoffs, and I expect him to eclipse that number on Sunday. Don’t be surprised if the #2 car is racing for the checkered flag on the final lap of the Hollywood Casino 400.
The Best Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Value
The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Hollywood Casino 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at Kansas Speedway, and their 2019 season so far:
| Driver | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | Avg Start | Avg Finish | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 2 | 7 | 8 | 10.7 | 17.4 | 3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 6 | 7 | 12.1 | 15.7 | 2 |
| Clint Bowyer | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18.6 | 16.0 | 2 |
Joey Logano (+1000)
Like his teammate Keselowski, Logano needs a strong running on Sunday to solidify his spot in Round 3 of the playoffs. And also like his teammate, Logano is just above the cutoff line and has two career wins at this track.
However, unlike Keselowski, Logano has two DNFs in the last seven Kansas races. The silver lining is that Logano crashed out of the spring races and not the fall Kansas race. Furthermore, both of his wins at this track were in the fall race as well.
Logano finished 15th this year at the Digital Ally 400 but was 8th in this race last year with 100 laps led. I see the #22 car coming in under the radar this weekend with at least a Top 10 result. I don’t see the reigning cup champion being bounced from the postseason at this point.
Denny Hamlin (+1600)
After the first race of the playoffs, Hamlin finished 15th in Vegas and dropped to 7th in the standings. Since then, Denny has slowly climbed up the ranks to sit #1 overall heading into Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400.
His rise up the ranks is due to a strong postseason run despite not winning a race in the playoffs. In the five playoff races, Hamlin has finished 19th or better in all of them. He also has three Top 5s. His third-place result at Talladega last weekend helped him catapult up to #1 in the standings.
At Kansas, Hamlin hasn’t been spectacular, but he has been decent enough. Over his last four races at this track, he has two Top 5s and has finished 16th or better in all four races.
Lastly, Hamlin is practically guaranteed to advance to the next round. So, the #11 car can take some risks to go for the win where other cars will have to play it safe.
Clint Bowyer (+3300)
It’s now or never for Clint Bowyer at his home racetrack. Bowyer needs a win to advance to the next round or at least a Top 5 and a lot of help. He’s 11th in the standings, 24 points below the cutoff line and the 8th place driver Joey Logano.
Bowyer has picked up the pace over the last few months as he’s scored six Top 10s in the previous eight overall races. Unfortunately, it was his 23rd place result at Talladega last weekend that hampered his chances of advancing.
Kansas Speedway hasn’t always been kind to Bowyer despite being from the state. With that said, it appears that he’s created some momentum for himself at this track when he finished 5th in this year’s spring race.
I like Bowyer’s value here because he’s not expected to race well on Sunday. However, with the playoffs on the line and racing in his home state, it could be a “Hollywood” ending that drivers dream of.
The Top Longshot to Win the Hollywood Casino 400
Jimmie Johnson has the same +3300 odds as Clint Bowyer, but Johnson hasn’t won a race since 2017, which is why he’s my longshot this weekend. This is the worst drought of his career. Nevertheless, Johnson has had a lot of success at Kansas in the past.
In 26 starts at Kansas Speedway, Johnson has three wins, nine Top 5s, 18 Top 10s, and an average finish of 10.3. He finished 6th in the spring race this year, which is his best result since the 2016 Hollywood Casino 400.
If any non-playoff driver can wreck the playoffs this weekend, it’s Mr. seven-time champion himself Jimmie Johnson.
Hollywood Casino 400 Prop Bets: Driver Matchups
The following NASCAR prop bets require bettors to pick the winning driver out of head-to-head matchups at Kansas on October 20th. These driver matchups and betting odds are courtesy of 5Dimes:
Martin Truex Jr. (-110) vs Kyle Busch (-120)
| Driver | Martin Truex | Kyle Busch |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Top 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Top 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Avg Start | 11.5 | 12.4 |
| Avg Finish | 14.2 | 16.9 |
| DNF | 1 | 4 |
| Total Races | 22 | 23 |
Although they’re teammates, Busch and Truex seem worlds apart in on-track performances over the last few months. And, at Kansas, I expect that great divide to continue.
They both have raced pretty much the same amount of times at Kansas, and Truex has better numbers. Truex has more wins, Top 5s, better averages, and fewer DNFs than Busch.
The biggest disparity comes in the last five Kansas races. During that span, Busch has an average finish of 11.4, and Truex has an average finish of 5.8. Additionally, Truex has four Top 5s and two wins in that span, whereas Busch has no wins and just two Top 5s.
I like both drivers to finish within the Top 10, but I think Truex has a better shot at taking the checkered flag and winning this head to head battle.
Kurt Busch (-115) vs William Byron (-115)
| Driver | Kurt Busch | William Byron |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Top 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Top 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Avg Start | 15.3 | 11.0 |
| Avg Finish | 15.8 | 30.3 |
| DNF | 2 | 2 |
| Total Races | 27 | 3 |
Despite having nine times as many opportunities at this track to win compared to William Byron, Kurt Busch still has never won at Kansas. I’m not saying he will win this weekend, but I do believe he will finish higher than Byron.
In Byron’s three races, he has two DNFs. His lone finish was 20th this spring. Although he often starts off the race in a decent position, Byron seems to be outgunned by other drivers and has some bad luck as well. Busch, on the other hand, has raced well at this track over the last 4 ½ years.
In his last nine Kansas races, Busch has finished inside the Top 20 in all of them. He also has two Top 5s and six Top 10s. I expect Kurt Busch to have at least a Top 15 car and compete for the Top 10. Despite Bowyer fighting for his playoff life, I don’t see him cracking the Top 10 at all. A Top 15 spot would be lucky.
Take Kurt Busch to win this head to head battle in an even odds matchup.
Who Gets Eliminated From the Playoffs After Round 2?
Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney are guaranteed to move on to the next round. So that leaves six spots available. With that in mind, I believe Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch will all advance as well.
That leaves Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano to fight off the four drivers below the cutoff line: Byron, Bowman, Elliott and Bowyer. Of those four, I like Chase Elliott’s chances this weekend.
I think that the final two spots in the round of eight will come down to Keselowski, Logano and Elliott. The best-case scenario for Elliott is to win the race or finish in the Top 3 with Keselowski and Logano finishing further back in the pack.
Call me crazy, but I believe Elliott is going to knock out one of the Team Penske drivers. It’s a tossup as to which one. However, I have to side with the reigning cup champion and pick Logano to edge out his teammate Keselowski.
The four drivers I see getting eliminated this weekend are:
- Alex Bowman
- Clint Bowyer
- William Byron
- Brad Keselowski
Looking for two solid bets for @kansasspeedway this weekend?@KevinHarvick and @MartinTruex_Jr have combined to win four of the last six races at the track. pic.twitter.com/MPVJLyXgSH
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 18, 2019
Hollywood Casino 400 Checkered Flag
I believe this race is going to come down to one of three drivers: Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. All three of them are capable of winning this race and have a lot of momentum at this track.
With that said, I’m leaning toward Elliott or Harvick winning. Truex will compete for it, but I think he will come up short in the end. Ultimately, Elliott has the most to gain from winning, but Harvick has the most consistency at this track. Last year, Elliott capitalized on a Harvick mistake. This year, I think Harvick gets his revenge.
I’m taking Kevin Harvick to have one of the best cars on the day and beat out both Elliott and Truex for the checkered flag in the Hollywood Casino 400.
My Top 5 Drivers
- Chase Elliott
- Kevin Harvick
- Martin Truex Jr
- Kyle Busch
- Denny Hamlin
Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Recap
Winner: Kevin Harvick (+450)
Betting Value:
- Joey Logano (+1000)
- Denny Hamlin (+1600)
- Clint Bowyer (+3300)
Longshot: Jimmie Johnson (+3300)
Driver Matchups:
- Martin Truex Jr. (-110) over Kyle Busch
- Kurt Busch (-115) over William Byron
NASCAR Props Challenge for Week 32
Every week, NASCAR releases 10 prop bets for fans to choose the correct answers, earn points and possibly win some prizes. For the 32nd race of the season, there are a few props that I like and think you should consider:
Does a Driver Below the Cutoff Line Advance to the Next Round of the Playoffs?
As you can see above, I believe Chase Elliott is the driver that will advance from below the cutoff line to the round of 3. I think Elliott has a strong chance of winning this race. Although I’m picking Harvick to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if Elliott took the checkered flag.
Elliott was in this exact position last year coming into Kansas and won the race. He’s a highly talented driver, and this could be the year that he cements himself as a true championship contender.
With that said, let’s segue into another prop that piggybacks off of this one.
Which Driver Below the Cutoff Line Will Finish Higher?
- Chase Elliott
- William Byron
Chase Elliott is my pick to finish higher than William Byron easily. Byron has an average finish of 30.3 with 2 DNFs in three career races. Elliott has a 12.9 average finish and zero DNFs. Furthermore, in his last three Kansas races, Elliott has a 5.9 average finish.
Byron will be lucky to crack the Top 20, while Elliott will compete for the race win.
Over/Under 15.5 Lead Changes
In the spring Kansas race this year, the Over-hit as there were 23 lead changes. I suspect that trend to continue, but let’s look at past results to see whether to take the Over or the Under:
- In the last 5 races at Kansas the Over was 2-3.
- In the last 10 races at Kansas the Over was 7-3.
- In the last 20 races at Kansas the Over was 15-5.
- In all 27 races at Kansas the Over was 21-6.
As you can see, the Over has dominated the Under all-time at this track. The numbers don’t lie, go with the Over for this prop bet.
Which Team Has the Higher Finisher?
- Joe Gibbs Racing
- Team Penske
Joe Gibbs Racing features Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch with all three members in the Top 4 in the standings. Team Penske has Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. Blaney has already advanced to the next round due to winning at Talladega last weekend.
As mentioned above, I believe Keselowski is going to be eliminated while Logano will crack the Top 10 on Sunday. However, I think all three of JGR’s playoff drivers will be in the Top 10 and possibly the Top 5. I like Truex’s chances of winning the race and believe he will be the highest finisher of all six of these drivers.
For this prop bet, go with Joe Gibbs Racing to have the highest finisher in the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday.